Market segmentation and selective investment

2025 Outlook: Poland’s Investment Land Market

For the Polish investment land market, 2025 is expected to be more of a year of rebuilding potential rather than a period of spectacular investment transactions. In recent months, more deals have been finalized, but purchasing decisions are preceded by thorough analyses conducted by buyers. Investors are returning to the market, even though it is currently much more demanding than before.

However, this investment revival does not signal a return to the scale of expansion witnessed before the pandemic. The surge in transactional activity observed in 2021 and 2022 sparked enthusiasm, but it was quickly tempered by the lack of government support programs, the absence of a coherent planning policy, and a restrictive credit policy that persists to this day, resulting in a highly selective approach by banks toward financing projects.

Micro-level scrutiny has become the standard in today's market. Capital is targeting land designated for specific types of projects—primarily those with confirmed demand potential, such as PRS (Private Rented Sector) developments, urban logistics warehouses, or mixed-use properties in regional capitals. There is also particularly strong demand for land intended for residential construction.

The Role of Polish Capital in Investment Activity

After a long period of “wait and see,” many players are returning to actively seeking investment opportunities. Among investors, there is a sense of cautious optimism. Nevertheless, 2025 is shaping up to be a significantly more transaction-heavy year compared to the last one, with most activity expected in the second half of the year.

While awaiting greater involvement of Western European capital, many of the transactions currently taking place rely heavily on “neighborly investment flows,” particularly from Czech, German, and Baltic investors. Local private investors not affiliated with the development sector are also very active in the market and are beginning to play an increasingly important role in building a stable land acquisition structure.

This is also how we, at Walter Herz, approach our investment projects. Recently, we successfully raised over PLN 50 million from private individuals for land acquisition ventures. As experienced transaction advisors, we take on the regulatory and zoning pressures, while investors expect full transparency guarantees. We are proud to already have some successes in this area, with our own land holdings in Warsaw, Poznan, and the Tri-City, which align with inquiries from both investors and our business partners.

Global Trade Tensions and the Polish Land Market

In recent months, global economic shifts—including escalating trade tensions between countries—have also had a significant impact on Poland’s investment land market. Thanks to its stable economy and strategic location, Poland continues to attract investors seeking alternative destinations for their operations. Detailed analyses are once again being conducted for land designated for warehouse developments, data centers, energy storage facilities, and other commercial investments.

Tensions between the U.S. and China over tariffs are driving transformations in global supply chains, which is reflected in the rising number of inquiries for new logistics spaces in Poland—many of which come from Chinese investors.

Despite global challenges, Poland remains an attractive destination for foreign investors. An expected average GDP growth rate of 3.4% for 2025–2026, coupled with a steady inflow of foreign direct investment, makes the Polish market competitive for real estate and land investment. In this context, land investments are increasingly seen by investors as a safe haven for capital.

Interest is particularly growing in residential development plots and agricultural land with potential for rezoning. This trend is especially visible in regions with high urbanization potential. At the same time, investor concerns remain high regarding planning instability and unresolved regulatory issues, which directly affect the feasibility and cost assessment of upcoming investments.

New investors from Turkey and the Mediterranean region are entering the market aggressively, willing to compete on price while mitigating entry risk by focusing on smaller, safer projects. This is evidenced by four sales agreements recently closed by Walter Herz in Warsaw alone over the past month.

Legislative Changes Aimed at Streamlining the Investment Process

Trends in the investment land market are also being shaped by evolving investor preferences and ongoing planning reforms in Poland. One of the major challenges remains the limited coverage of local zoning plans (MPZP), which currently apply to only about 30–40% of the country’s territory. As a result, investors are often forced to wait extended periods for zoning decisions (WZ), which are unpredictable, subject to administrative discretion, and frequently not issued at all. The overhaul related to new “General Plans” has been marked by continuous revisions and shifting implementation timelines, further deepening legislative uncertainty.

To ensure transparency and foster faster growth in Poland’s investment land market, it is essential to implement simple, predictable, and digitalized procedures. The ongoing deregulatory efforts should lead to the rationalization of administrative processes that are currently stalling development.

A positive direction for reforming Poland’s construction law would be eliminating the requirement for environmental decisions in selected investment types—particularly those with minimal environmental impact, such as service facilities or warehouses. These requirements currently delay building permits by several months, even for small-scale projects. It would also be helpful to create a list of “low-impact investments” for which environmental decisions would either be unnecessary or replaced by a simple investor declaration.

Further improvements to the investment process could include the mandatory digitization of land and mortgage registers across the country and the introduction of a “White Book of Investment Land”—a public registry of land plots ready for development.

Another crucial step—especially for expanding access to foreign investment—would be to establish clear criteria for exempting Class IV and V agricultural land from agricultural use without requiring ministerial approval.

Author: Emil Domeracki, Partner, Board Member Land Development Advisory, Walter Herz