Over the past three years, Poland’s warehouse market has enjoyed an advantage that other commercial real estate segments could only envy: consistency. Logistics grew, attracted capital and delivered strong results with regularity. Today, the sector is entering a more demanding phase of the cycle, but that does not signal weakness. Rather, it marks a shift into a more selective phase of the market.

At the end of 2025, total modern warehouse stock in Poland reached 36.58 million sq m, with new supply amounting to 1.68 million sq m. Gross take-up reached 6.64 million sq m — the third strongest result in the history of Poland’s logistics market and the second-highest net demand in Europe, behind Germany alone. At first glance, the figures remain very strong.

At the same time, the structure of demand has shifted. For the first time, lease renegotiations — covering 3.46 million sq m — exceeded net new demand of 3.3 million sq m and accounted for 52 percent of total transaction volume. This is an important signal. Companies that signed leases during the years of rapid expansion are now more likely to remain in their existing locations, as the cost of relocation and launching a new operation often outweighs the benefits of moving. This is not a sign of market weakness, but rather of a more pragmatic approach to occupancy decisions.

Supply arithmetic is beginning to favour landlords

If net new demand in 2026 holds at around 3 million sq m per year while new supply remains at approximately 2 million sq m, the market could begin generating a supply gap of around 1 million sq m annually.

Prologis experts expect Poland’s vacancy rate in 2026 to remain slightly below 8 percent, although in the Warsaw region it may fall below 5 percent. This is particularly relevant in the large-unit segment. Across the entire country, there are currently only ten available units exceeding 30,000 sq m. Readily available product for occupiers seeking scale is virtually non-existent.

For companies planning larger operations, the implication is clear: postponing decisions may soon mean having no real choice at all. In Walter Herz’s view, Poland’s warehouse market has entered a phase where what matters is no longer simply the presence of capital, but the quality of assets and their ability to serve new categories of tenants. Owners of the best-located and most efficient assets are increasingly regaining the upper hand in negotiations.

Refinancing confirms confidence in the sector

Access to financing remains another important signal for the market. Hillwood secured an additional €120 million in financing from Aareal Bank for four existing warehouse

projects in Poland, bringing the total credit facility to €440 million. This was not an acquisition, but a refinancing and an increase in the bank’s existing exposure — a clear indication that mature logistics assets in Poland continue to be viewed as safe and attractive from a lender’s perspective.

At the same time, DL Invest Group acquired Platan Park Warsaw, strengthening its exposure to urban logistics and modern infrastructure. This, too, is a meaningful signal: capital is no longer looking exclusively at classic large-scale warehouse parks, but is increasingly drawn to assets better suited to last-mile logistics and the needs of major metropolitan areas.

Poland’s warehouse sector currently generates investment volume of around €1.5 billion per year, and the market expects further growth. If large portfolio transactions currently at various stages of negotiation are completed in 2026, another record cannot be ruled out.

Nearshoring and Ukraine could reinforce Poland’s position as a logistics hub

Poland’s warehouse market in 2026 also benefits from two structural factors that may further strengthen its position. The first is nearshoring — the relocation of manufacturing and supply chains closer to end markets. Poland benefits here from developed infrastructure, land availability and a relatively strong industrial base.

The second potential driver is the scenario linked to Ukraine’s reconstruction. If the conflict begins to wind down, Poland could become the primary logistics backbone for reconstruction processes, particularly in eastern and border locations. This is not yet the base case, but the topic is returning with increasing frequency in conversations with investors and operators.

In this context, Poland remains one of the key pillars of European logistics, and that position is unlikely to change in the years ahead. Capital returning to the sector is increasingly focused on assets with strong locations, high energy efficiency and the ability to accommodate tenants from new sectors — from nearshoring manufacturers to 3PL operators and infrastructure supporting technological growth.