Author: Emil Domeracki, Partner, Board Member

The first half of 2026 confirmed that Poland’s investment land market has entered a new phase of development. The period in which the value of real estate was determined primarily by the expected increase in land prices has come to an end. Today, the key factors are the quality of project preparation, the predictability of the investment process and the ability to deliver a project efficiently.

Improved financing conditions have translated into increased investor activity. However, the cost of capital is no longer the primary criterion in transaction assessment. The stability of the planning process, investment security and access to technical infrastructure and utilities are playing an increasingly important role.

Project Value Over Land Value

The market is seeing a growing polarisation of assets. The strongest investor interest is focused on land covered by a local spatial development plan, with a clear legal status, secured utility connection conditions or an obtained building permit. Such assets continue to maintain high valuations and attract buyers relatively quickly. By contrast, land requiring lengthy administrative procedures or exposed to planning uncertainty remains on the market for much longer.

In practice, this reflects a shift in the way real estate is valued. Increasingly, the subject of a transaction is not the land itself, but a ready investment scenario. What investors are primarily buying is the ability to start project delivery quickly and with limited risk. Predictability of the investment process has become the new currency of the land market.

The importance of technical infrastructure is also growing. Access to electricity and adequate connection capacity is increasingly determining the attractiveness of land, particularly in the case of industrial, logistics and data centre projects.

Today, property analysis goes far beyond assessing urban planning parameters. It also covers the stability of the regulatory environment, the timeline of administrative procedures, access to technical infrastructure, transport connections and potential environmental and social risks.

New Spatial Planning Will Shape the Market

Over the next two years, the restructuring of the spatial planning system will have the strongest impact on the land market. Greater transparency of administrative procedures may become a catalyst for an increase in transaction volumes in the years ahead. As new general plans are adopted and the use of Integrated Investment Plans gains practical maturity, the market should become more predictable.

Integrated Investment Plans will not become a universal instrument and will not replace traditional planning tools. However, they may play an important role in large residential, industrial and mixed-use projects, particularly where the objectives of the investor and the local authority are aligned.

At the same time, a significant increase in the supply of attractive land should not be expected. For years, the market has struggled with limited availability of sites with a regulated planning status in the best investment locations. New general plans will organise the rules under which the market operates, but they are unlikely to significantly increase the overall pool of available assets.

What can be stated clearly, however, is that the era of valuing land primarily on the basis of its investment potential has ended. A new phase has begun, in which the predictability of project delivery is becoming the decisive factor. In the coming years, the market will reward professional analysis and effective risk management rather than speculation based on the expected growth of land values.

At the same time, secondary cities will gain importance, supported by the development of transport infrastructure, nearshoring processes and the relocation of manufacturing to Central and Eastern Europe.

The Growing Strength of Domestic Capital

One of the most visible changes is the increasing activity of domestic investors. Regional developers, private investors and family offices are now among the most active market participants. Their advantage lies in their understanding of local conditions, negotiating flexibility and readiness to develop projects over a longer investment horizon. This allows them to compete effectively with foreign capital, which is gradually returning to the Polish market and focusing primarily on well-prepared, lower-risk projects.

The ability to identify investors ready to efficiently complete transactions is also becoming increasingly important. Between May and July 2026 alone, with the support of Walter Herz, transactions with a combined value exceeding PLN 140 million were closed. These included the acquisition of sites in Warsaw and Gdańsk designated for service functions and, under the new general plans, earmarked for residential development. In the coming months, we also expect similar transaction activity to emerge in Poznań, where new investors are preparing for regional expansion.

The Land Market in a New Growth Phase

The investment land market will not return to a model in which property value is determined primarily by the expected increase in land prices. The quality of project preparation, the efficiency of the investment process and the ability to mitigate risk will become increasingly important.

In the coming years, the strongest competitive advantage will belong to assets offering a high level of investment predictability, access to technical infrastructure and a stable planning environment. These are the factors that will define land values and shape the future direction of the Polish market.