The new section of Warsaw’s second metro line is expected to increase property values first. Only later will it become clear whether it will also boost office supply in the city’s western districts.

More than half of Warsaw’s office buildings are located within reach of the metro. Properties within walking distance of a station command higher rents than comparable buildings outside the metro’s pedestrian catchment area. The western extension of Line M2, featuring the Lazurowa, Chrzanów and Karolin stations, is undergoing testing and is expected to open soon. More than 30 office buildings are located within the wider area surrounding the three new stations, although only some are within their immediate walking catchment areas. The largest concentration of offices is near Karolin, where properties could benefit significantly from the new metro connection.

Office rents in buildings located near metro stations can be as much as €6 per sq m per month higher than those in comparable buildings outside walking distance of a station, in the case of Class A properties. For Class B and C buildings, the difference is approximately €3–4 per sq m per month.

More than 60% of Warsaw’s Office Space Is Within Walking Distance of a Metro Station

- The metro is one of the key factors shaping Warsaw’s office market geography. Approximately 51% of Warsaw’s office buildings are located within 1.2 km of a metro station, which is considered the walking catchment area. These buildings account for 61% of the city’s total office stock. This indicates that office buildings located near the metro are, on average, larger than those outside its catchment area - says Daria Stefańska, Senior Data Analyst at Walter Herz.

The largest clusters of offices in the immediate vicinity of the metro are found in Śródmieście, Wola and Mokotów. The stations with the highest concentrations are Centrum and Rondo ONZ, each with approximately 180 office buildings within a 1.2 km radius. They are followed by Świętokrzyska, with around 170 office buildings, Nowy Świat-Uniwersytet, with more than 150, and Rondo Daszyńskiego, with approximately 140.

Around 150 office buildings, or approximately 12.4% of the entire office stock, are located within 300 metres of a metro station. Their combined area totals 1.82 million sq m, equivalent to 19.9% of Warsaw’s total office stock. The average building provides 12,900 sq m of office space, while the average rent in these locations is €19.60 per sq m per month.

Approximately 330 buildings, accounting for 27.8% of the stock, are located between 300 and 800 metres from a metro station. They offer a combined 2.61 million sq m, representing 28.6% of the office space available in the capital. The average building measures 8,500 sq m, and average rents reach €18.90 per sq m per month.

Another 130 or so office buildings, representing 11.1% of Warsaw’s stock, are located between 800 and 1,200 metres from a metro station. Together, they provide 1.10 million sq m, equivalent to 12% of the market. The average building measures 8,800 sq m, and average rents stand at €15.60 per sq m per month.

More than 570 office properties, representing almost 49% of the stock, remain outside walking distance of the metro. Their combined area totals 3.61 million sq m, or 39.5% of Warsaw’s total office space. The average building in this category measures 6,500 sq m, and average rents are approximately €12.90 per sq m per month.

The Metro Comes at a Price

Proximity to a metro station alone does not explain the differences in rental levels. The location relative to the city centre and the building’s standard are also crucial factors. Office space located within 1.5 km of Centrum station commands average rents of more than €20 per sq m per month. In buildings situated more than 6 km from the station, the average rate falls to approximately €12 per sq m per month.

Between 1.5 and 3 km from Centrum station, average rents exceed €18 per sq m per month in offices within 1.2 km of a metro station, compared with €14.80 per sq m per month in buildings outside walking distance. At a distance of 3–6 km from Centrum, the corresponding figures are €17.20 and €13.40 per sq m per month.

The data therefore reveal a clear rental premium for access to the metro. Office space in buildings of the same class located within 1.2 km of a station commands rents that are, on average, approximately €3–6 per sq m per month higher. The premium is greatest for top-quality properties.

For Class A buildings, average rents exceed €20 per sq m per month within the metro catchment area, compared with €14.40 outside it—a difference of approximately €6. For Class B buildings, the figures are €15.30 and €12 per sq m per month, respectively, while for Class C properties they stand at €14.20 and €10.60. The resulting premium is around €3–4 per sq m per month.

- The figures show that the highest premium for metro accessibility is maintained within the typical walking catchment area of approximately 10 minutes. Beyond 800 metres, rents quickly converge towards the levels recorded outside the metro catchment area - concludes Daria Stefańska.

The Metro Has Shaped Warsaw’s Office Market

The history of Warsaw’s office market shows that new office buildings have tended to emerge rapidly around metro stations as the network has expanded. Around the stations on the first section of Line M1, which opened in 1995, approximately 150 office buildings have since been developed, offering a combined 954,000 sq m. Average rents in these buildings are €17 per sq m per month.

Between 1998 and 2008, the expansion of Line M1 was associated with the development of approximately 160 new office buildings with a combined area of 1.17 million sq m. Average rents in these locations reach €18.90 per sq m per month. Since 2015, the central section of Line M2 has been accompanied by the development of approximately 230 new buildings, offering 3.12 million sq m of space, with average rents of around €20 per sq m per month.

The subsequent phases of Line M2’s expansion had a different impact. In 2019–2020, approximately 45 office buildings with a combined area of 202,000 sq m were completed within the catchment areas of the new stations, with average rents of €14 per sq m per month. The wave of development associated with the 2022 expansion brought eight buildings totalling 63,600 sq m, with average rents of €12.40 per sq m per month.

Approximately 80% of office buildings located within the catchment areas of the oldest metro stations were completed after those stations opened. However, it would be misleading to conclude that the metro alone triggered these investments. In Ursynów and southern Mokotów, the development boom of the 1990s, land prices, local zoning plans and the inflow of capital into Warsaw also played a role. Today’s market operates under different conditions, including hybrid working arrangements and a higher overall supply of office space.

Karolin Has the Greatest Potential

The new western extension of Line M2 could provide another test of the impact of transport infrastructure on the commercial property market. The three stations—Lazurowa, at the junction of Górczewska and Lazurowa streets; Chrzanów, near Rayskiego and Szeligowska streets; and Karolin, in the area of Połczyńska and Sochaczewska streets—are located in an area that can hardly be described as an established office hub.

More than 30 office buildings are situated within a 3 km radius of the stations. Only 12 buildings, offering a combined 28,000 sq m of office space, are located within 1.2 km of a station. Average rents in these properties stand at €12.70 per sq m per month. By comparison, the area around Bemowo station, which has been operating since 2022, contains four office buildings.

Karolin has the greatest potential. Its surrounding area includes the following properties: TRUMPF HQ (a Class A building completed in 2016, offering 1,700 sq m of office space and located 130 metres from the station), Połczyńska 116A (a Class B building dating from 1999, with 1,000 sq m of space, located 210 metres from the station), West Warsaw Office (a Class A building completed in 2017, offering 5,800 sq m and situated 520 metres from the station), Pola Karolińskie (a Class B property dating from 1999, with 8,500 sq m of space, located 1.01 km from the station), Diamond Business Park Ursus (a complex of seven Class A and B buildings located 1.20 km from the station and completed between 2013 and 2018).

The wider Karolin area also includes S8 Business Park, Factory Ursus shopping centre and properties near Plac Czerwca 1976 Roku.

For these office buildings, the opening of the new section of Line M2 will primarily mean easier access for employees and tenants travelling from Wola, Śródmieście and areas along the metro line.

The situation around Lazurowa and Chrzanów is different. Nine office buildings are located in the vicinity of Lazurowa, including Człuchowska 66, Dywizjonu 303, Aquarius, Comet Business Center and Wola Court. Meanwhile, the relatively high number of buildings attributed to Chrzanów results from the broad scope of the analysis, which also includes Ursus. At present, there are no office buildings within walking distance of Chrzanów station.

How Will the Metro Affect Bemowo’s Office Market?

- The metro creates opportunities primarily for mixed-use developments, local office projects, flexible workspaces and services for residents. Whether Bemowo will develop into a local office hub will depend not only on transport links and improved connectivity, but also on local zoning plans, land availability, competition from residential development and actual tenant demand - says Daria Stefańska. - The first signs of the area’s revitalisation will be the number of enquiries from tenants, leasing rates, changes in vacancy levels and decisions by owners of older properties to undertake modernization - she adds.

The metro could act as a catalyst, but it does not guarantee the emergence of a new office market. The properties best positioned to benefit will be those that combine improved accessibility with an appropriate standard, competitive rents, energy efficiency, employee amenities and flexible leasing options. For older buildings near the new stations, the extension could create an opportunity to reposition their properties and compete with more expensive locations in Wola and the city centre.

For Lazurowa, Chrzanów and Karolin, therefore, the key question is not whether the metro will create a new office hub. What matters more is whether improved transport accessibility will generate enough demand to increase the value of existing properties and make further developments financially viable for investors.

The historical evidence suggests that the metro can be a powerful catalyst. The western extension of Line M2 will show whether its impact can be equally strong in a mature market characterised by relatively high office supply and an increasingly hybrid working model.