Poland’s retail landscape is becoming increasingly paradoxical. On the one hand, 2025 delivered the highest level of new supply in a decade. On the other, investment volume in the retail sector fell by almost half year on year. Both statements are true, and both say something important about where Polish retail is heading.

In total, around 590,000 sq m of GLA was delivered to the market in 2025, of which as much as 326,000 sq m came in the fourth quarter alone. This was the strongest quarterly result in years. One format clearly dominated the new supply structure: retail parks, which accounted for around 75–80 percent of completed space. Total retail stock in Poland therefore increased to approximately 15.6 million sq m of GLA. At the same time, vacancy remains below 3 percent, which still points to a low and stable level of unoccupied space.

Operationally, retail remains strong

From an operating perspective, the market remains in good shape. Retail sales in Poland rose by more than 4 percent year on year in 2025. In shopping centres, the best-performing categories were services, health and beauty, as well as food and beverage and entertainment. On top of that, 31 brands opened their first physical stores in Poland.

This is an important signal, as it shows that brick-and-mortar retail is not losing relevance, but its role is changing. Footfall in shopping centres is declining, yet turnover is increasing. Customers are visiting less frequently, but they are shopping more purposefully and spending more per visit. As Mateusz Dembski-Kornaga, Director at Walter Herz, notes, retail in Poland is not returning to a mall-centric model. Rather, it is returning to fundamentals: stable cash flow, footfall and a format that responds to the needs of the local community.

A transaction that clearly shows investors’ preferences

One of the clearest signals for the market was the completion of Shopper Park Plus’s acquisition of a portfolio of eight retail assets in Poland, anchored by Auchan hypermarkets. The portfolio comprises around 208,000 sq m of GLA and was valued at over €210 million. The transaction was completed on 5 March 2026. Financing was secured partly through an equity issue and partly through a loan from Aareal Bank. Equally important is the lease structure: Auchan signed triple-net leases for terms of up to 30 years.

For the market, this sends a very clear message. Defensive capital is still actively seeking Polish assets built around stable cash flow, a predictable operating model and a strong grocery anchor.

This is not an isolated case. LCP Poland also remains highly active, consistently expanding its retail park portfolio. The common denominator behind these transactions is straightforward: investors are looking for formats that are operationally resilient, easier to manage and more predictable in income terms than traditional shopping centres.

Retail parks are gaining ground, while shopping centres need to reposition

This is where the market’s main dividing line now runs. Retail parks benefit from product simplicity, a strong convenience function and relatively low operating costs. In many locations, they have become the preferred format for both tenants and investment capital. As Mateusz Dembski-Kornaga points out, they enjoy this loyalty almost organically: they are close to customers, cheaper to operate and better insulated from e-commerce competition than traditional malls.

Shopping centres are not disappearing, but they are clearly entering a new phase. The best premium schemes continue to attract brands, customers and capital, but their advantage no longer rests on scale alone. It increasingly depends on the quality of experience, the tenant mix and the ability to drive traffic around something more than retail alone. Weaker assets will face growing difficulty defending their market position. As Mateusz Dembski-Kornaga observes, shopping centres that fail to recognise the need for repositioning and do not invest in redefining their function may begin to lose both tenants and investor interest.

2026 will be a year of rental growth and a test for retail parks

In 2026, the market will be watching two key processes. The first is the continued growth of rents in the best shopping centres. In the most prestigious shopping centres in Warsaw, prime rents now reach €100–130 per sq m per month. At the same time, cap rates for prime shopping centres remain at 6.25–6.50 percent, while retail parks are trading in the 7–8 percent range.

The second major process will be the renegotiation of five-year leases signed en masse in retail parks in 2020–2021, during the pandemic-driven boom of this format. Those negotiations will show how durable the rental levels agreed in a period of exceptionally strong demand really were. Put differently, the market will verify which projects are built on genuinely strong operating fundamentals and which merely benefited from an unusually favourable market moment.

Retail is becoming increasingly polarised

The key conclusion today is simple: Polish retail is not weakening, but it is becoming increasingly polarised. On one side are retail parks, which remain a simple, resilient product that is attractive to capital. On the other are shopping centres, which can still succeed, but only if they offer a genuine quality advantage and the ability to build traffic around something more than retail alone.

This is no longer a market in which every format wins. It is a market in which both capital and tenants are voting ever more clearly for predictability, convenience and quality.